Apr 23, 2018
1) The 야당(opposition) looks hell bent on getting a 특검 (special
counsel) probe on the 드루킹 affair. Media feeding frenzy on Druking,
his group 경공모, and lawmaker 김경수. After much consternation, Kim is
deciding to run for 경남 governor in the June elections. He
apparently was set to drop out, not wanting to burden the 문재인
administration and his ruling party, but the powers that be
convinced him to fight the good fight. His reputation as a clean,
soft-spoken "nice guy" seems to belie the strange firestorm he's
been engulfed in. There seems to be a "try hard" atmosphere with
the race for scoops in this case. Similar to the 최순실 scandal and
various scoops. Everyone looking for a "tablet PC" smoking gun.
Hesitate to call this "fake news" and put on a red MAGA hat, but
stuff just doesn't add up. The controversy and allegations just
don't appear to be organic. Police are pressured to be "tough" now
that they've been criticized for being slow to investigate, which
is compounding the confusion and the drip-drip of details related
to the case. One media outlet is now in big trouble for
surreptitiously sneaking out a tablet PC and usb drive from the
publishing company linked to Druking. Also been found that Druking
sent threatening messages to 김경수 just before getting arrested. 3
opposition parties (minus 정의당) trying to put a vote to the floor on
특검. Blue House and 김경수 says bring it on. Ruling 민주당 party says no
go. Maybe a wider more comprehensive probe looking at ALL online
manipulation on Naver would be the best solution. But the
opposition will never go for it. Is it really realistic that
Druking was the ONLY guy with an online brigade and eventually a
macro software system that attempted to manipulate public opinion?
They point to one article brigaded by Druking's minions in regards
to 안철수's "MB avatar" narrative. Out of thousands and thousands of
similar articles that went viral around that time. Plus the "MB
avatar" meme had been ongoing for years before 드루킹's alleged
involvement. Is it possible that 드루킹 was the SOLE individual
responsible for all the suspected online manipulation going on in
Naver's news portal (most of the fishy ones being strange upvotes
and comments in favor of the conservatives). Common sense says no.
Some suggestions to fix the problem include re-instating real-name
commenting, banning all comments, using a Google News type system
for "out links". But all have their pros and cons and online ad
revenue models preclude the portals from agreeing to some of those
measures. However, online manipulation is real and needs to be
fixed. The ideal environment is an organic, reasoned discussion of
relevant news stories important to the people. But maybe the best
solution is to open up the Pandora's box (Naver's servers) and
crack down on the illegal bots/brigades. It'll be messy, but may be
the only fix. Lots of people agitating for it. Again if THAT
happens, the opposition should probably be "careful what they wish
for."
2) So how does that explain the political battle brewing right now.
Why are they opposition parties, particularly the LKP, going to the
mattresses over this relatively weak 드루킹/김경수 issue? Do they REALLY
think this is a severe national crisis where the nation's
democratic integrity is at stake? Are these tent rallies really
moving the people? 홍준표 and 안철수 are both questioning the legitimacy
of the last presidential elections and are claiming to be victims
of 드루킹's dastardly deeds. Seems to be falling on deaf ears. Both
candidates both received around half the votes that 문재인 won in the
elections (about 40 to 20, respectively). Seems more like a cop-out
or excuse for their electoral failings. Most reasonable minded
people would believe Moon would have won the elections with or
without the help of 드루킹. So as much as the LKP, Bareun Mirae would
like to make it so, this "scandal" doesn't rise to the level of the
최순실 affair where 10 years of deep-seated corruption came to the
fore and the public just had enough. Polling also suggests the
public isn't buying it. Majority oppose a 특검 on this issue. Just a
third support. So why would these smart politicians be crusading on
what likely is a losing issue? The answer is, they have no other
bullets in their arsenal. Moon's popularity after a slight dip, is
rising again, despite 김기식 and 드루킹. The inter-Korean summit is
overriding any negative sentiment. The ruling party is also gaining
in popularity despite the controversies. It shows the public is
more savvy about what the media tries to shape as a narrative.
Years ago, 조중동 and other outlets had the power to drive the news
conversation. But social media is cutting through the fog. Also,
the 드루킹 exploitation attempts, expose the impossible task of the
opposition in trying to "frame" the upcoming local elections in a
politically advantageous environment. The LKP and other opposition
parties, would love for this to be framed as a referendum on the
Moon government's failings and the HUGE 최순실-level scandal of online
brigading. They would want to avoid the elections to be framed as a
continuation of 적폐청산 (removing corruptive elements) like the last
elections and a vote for continued stability of a government whose
agenda the public generally supports. The polling suggests the
people are definitely in the latter frame. VERY early on,
pre-polling suggests that the ruling party is way ahead in 서울, 경기,
부산. Also leads are evident in 충남 despite 안희정, 강원 and YES even 경남
province. Much can change in the almost two months till the local
elections. And there is always a possibility that a huge scandal
will bring down this government and the ruling party. My hot take
is: the 드루킹 issue won't be that scandal. The 정상회담 will suck out all
the oxygen out of the news cycle in the next week or so. The
opposition will try and continue to push for a special prosecution,
probably continue their tent rallies. Can they keep this up for the
next two months, while refusing to do any work to pass legislation
in parliament. People are already calling for lawmaker salaries to
be cut. But if they can spend that political capital and damage
their reputations as lawmakers to score some political wins at the
local elections, it may be worth it. But it feels like a
high-risk/low-reward proposition. Good luck to them.
Subscribe, rate and review on Apple Podcasts!
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/korea-pod/id1361450798?mt=2&ls=1